By Scott Simmie
Those in the drone sector in Canada have seen incredible growth in recent years across multiple areas: Technology, use-cases, economic benefits and regulatory advancements. Many in the industry have long said ‘Drones are the future’ – or words to that effect.
Now, a new study commissioned by NAV CANADA backs up that belief with some astonishing projections. The report forecasts a growth in the number of drones in Canada from 24,000 in 2024 to 507,000 by 2045. And with those numbers come some impressive economic figures.
“The RPAS and AAM sectors contributed between $2.4 billion and $3.6 billion CAD to Canada’s GDP in 2024, supporting more than 30,000 jobs nationwide,” says a summary of the report’s highlights. “By 2045, that contribution is forecast to grow more than twentyfold, reaching over $69 billion CAD and creating more than 290,000 new jobs as demand accelerates for data processing, logistics, infrastructure inspection, and remote flight operations.”
That future will, of course, involve an increasing number of Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) flights, as well as the certification and integration of new passenger-carrying Advanced Air Mobility vehicles. Orchestrating all of that new traffic in the skies will require a sophisticated solution for safely managing all this, and the report touches on that as well.
Director of RPAS Traffic Management at NAV CANADA Alan Chapman led the report, entitled: RPAS and Advanced Air Mobility Market Sizing and Economic Impact. He calls it “the most sophisticated forecasting analysis of its kind for the Canadian RPAS and AAM sector,” and is clearly pleased with the final product.
Here’s Alan’s post announcing the report (which gives a shoutout to InDro CEO Philip Reece, Regulatory and Training Specialist Kate Klassen, and Law Enforcement Division Consultant Brian Fentiman of BlueForce).
Above: A Beta Technologies eCTOL CX300 takes to the skies. AAM aircraft like this will play a role in Canada’s RPAS/AAM future
USE-CASE PROJECTIONS
As mentioned, all of this traffic will require a unified RTM system to safely ensure there’s no conflict between traditional aviation and the RPAS/AAM sectors – and also within the RPAS/AAM world itself. Because of the immense projected growth in flights, the report predicts that RTM system will be handling a lot of traffic.
“By the year 2045, the RPAS Traffic Management (RTM) system is projected to handle roughly 19 million operations, equating to more than 50,000 operations daily,” says the NAV CANADA summary page. “However, the study anticipates operations of more than 21 million drone and AAM flights by this time, requiring additional investment to increase the system to meet projected demands and seize the potential of this growing sector.”
By the year 2045, there will have been significant growth in the Advanced Air Mobility sector, meaning new and transformative sustainable aircraft that can carry passengers, transport people requiring medical care, and even deliver large cargo payloads to remote or isolated areas. The growth of AAM (along with more heavy-lift drones) points to new use-cases. Here’s how the report breaks down projected annual flights for 2045, which includes a massive growth in drone deliveries:
- 4.9 million consumer goods delivery flights
- 350,000 health-care deliveries, including prescriptions, blood, organs, pathology samples, and other medical supplies
- 150,000 RPAS passenger transportation operations, including tourism, commute, and transporting patients
- 15,000 RPAS First Responder/security flights, including emergency management and disaster management
“The scale of economic opportunity highlighted in this study confirms that Canada is entering a new era of aviation,” says Mark Cooper, President and Chief Executive Officer at NAV CANADA. “To seize that potential, Canada’s key players need to be ready – by investing in the infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and partnerships that will enable safe integration of new airspace users. Canada has a unique opportunity to lead globally, and the work starts now.”
COMPREHENSIVE
This study is the first of its kind by NAV CANADA, and the company clearly wanted to do things right. The report “draws on more than 3,000 verified data sources, reports, and market insights, making it the most comprehensive forecasting model ever produced for Canada’s RPAS and AAM industries,” states NAV CANADA. In addition, more than 40 subject matter experts were consulted, including experts in the aviation, technology and infrastructure sectors.
And while there will still be some recreational pilots, the overwhelming majority of flights will be commercial, creating not only jobs and other economic benefits, but also saving companies that adopt the technology money.
“Beyond recreational flying, 97 per cent of operations are expected to deliver measurable business value, improving efficiency and safety across sectors such as construction, energy and mining. In fact, the study shows that automated solutions can achieve cost savings of 50-70 per cent when implemented on-site,” says this summary.
The implications are huge – and there will be some challenges ahead. NAV CANADA says it’s already hard at work preparing for this evolution.
“Integrating millions of uncrewed and advanced air mobility flights will require resilient digital infrastructure, adaptive traffic-management frameworks, and tighter data exchange between operators, regulators and NAV CANADA,” said David Sheppard, Vice President and Chief Technology and Information Officer at NAV CANADA. “This study sets out the scale of that challenge and highlights the work now underway to ensure these technologies can be safely and efficiently integrated into Canadian airspace.”
Below: An InDro-built R&D drone operating on Robot Operating System 2. It’s popular with researchers building the next generation of drones and exploring new use-cases
INDRO’S TAKE
We’re obviously excited about this new future, and have multiple projects underway to explore how best to safely integrate new use-cases and technology into the ever-evolving regulatory framework. These projects include a hydrogen-powered drone and infrastructure for refuelling in the field, as well as a broad partnership for long-range deliveries of critical supplies to remote and isolated First Nations communities. (There’s more, but we’ll just have to surprise you later on.)
“InDro Robotics was incorporated in 2014 because we could see the future potential of drones,” says Founder and CEO Philip Reece. “We’re grateful to NAV CANADA and Alan Chapman for having the foresight to produce an evidence-based report; one which confirms our own convictions about the incredible potential of this industry. We look forward to this future, and have no doubt ground robotics will achieve similar growth.”
You can read the entire study right here.